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It’s rather amazing, but we are officially done with the fantasy football regular season.  I realized I mixed up the scheduling and so the title games will be during Week 17.  Not great, but not the end of the world.  This season certainly flown by.  Tonight’s matchup between the Saints and the Bears kicks off the playoffs for our Niners Nation fantasy football leagues and I thought I’d get a preview heading into the game, along with a playoff bracket.

NN #1 saw four teams tie at 8-6 with only two getting playoff spots.  The two teams are mine (Frank the Tank) and the 6 seed BarNone, who happened to be in the same division as me.  Even more of a coincidence is that we faced each other the final week of the season, with BarNone winning 102-77.1  We’ll see if he can spring the early upset.

The favorites have to be the top two seeds, who also happened to be the two highest scoring teams in the league.  The first round bye comes at a perfect time for peckerwoods as he’s just trying to get his RBs healthy.

We only have one week left and things are getting crazy for the last few spots.  Nobody else grabbed a playoff spot this past week, but some of us are coming close.  Yours truly sits at 8-5 with a 1-game lead over BarNone.  What makes that particularly interesting is that we face off in the final week of the season.  If he defeats me, we would both be 8-6 and go to the tiebreakers, which are as follows:

1. Best head-to-head record
2. Best division record (same division only)
3. Most average points/game
4. Hardest schedule (record)
5. Hardest schedule (points)

A BarNone win this weekend would leave us 1-1 head-to-head.  His winning would also leave us tied with a 4-2 divisional record.  That brings us to most average points per game.  I currently lead in total points so that would mean I lead in average points per game.  In order for BarNone to pass me in average points, and thus win the division, he would have to outscore me this weekend by 58.96.  If that happened and ChocoPaco49 won, we’d be tied for the last wildcard spot.  However, I beat him in our one matchup, so that would solve that problem.  So, all in all, I think I’m headed to the playoffs.

Chocopaco49 faces current #5 seed RhymeSayers so that will certainly be a huge matchup.  The Czars (8-5) faces off against division leader Revival at the ‘Stick (9-4).  Based on how the tiebreakers fall out, the winner of that matchup wins the division and one of the two first round byes.

The season is flying by and we find ourselves with only two weeks left.  What makes it more intense is that the last two weeks of the season feature strictly divisional matchups.  So, if you’re only a game or two back of the division leader, all is not lost.

Only two teams are eliminated from playoff contention.  For those that have a bone to pick with him, howtheyscored is one of them at 3-9.  Swiss Cheese brings up the rear of the league at 2-10, thanks in part to a dynamic running back duo of Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James.  The fact that he’s been starting Derek Anderson all see makes me think he hasn’t signed in lately.  Or he knows of some strategy that we don’t know.

As it currently stands, your division leaders are myself (Frank the Tank @ 7-5), Revival At The ‘Stick (9-3 and clinched a wildcard berth) and peckerwoods (9-3 and clinched a wildcard berth).  The two wild card teams right now are The Czars at 8-4, RhymeSayers at 7-5 and ChocoPaco49 at 6-6.  There are three teams sitting at 6-6, one at 5-7 and one at 4-8 all still alive for playoff spots.  The first tiebreaker for all playoff spots is best head-to-head record.  For those in the same division the next tiebreaker is best divisional record.  After that it goes to most average points per game, followed by hardest schedule (record) and then hardest schedule (points).

I’ve always found that points scored is a better indicator of a team’s value since record can be benefited by a timely schedule.  Peckerwoods stands as the #1 seed and as highest ranking team it’s not surprising.  They’ve ridden the likes of Jay Cutler, Clinton Portis and Anquan Boldin straight to the top.  Our most “fortunate” projected playoff team would be ChocoPaco49, who has scored fewer points than four teams behind him.  He squeezed out an upset of Peckerwoods this past week in a down week for them.  Peckerwoods is averaging 105.87 points a game, but had their worst week of the season with 74.6 points.  They better hope it’s not a trend.

With only two playoff spots sewn up, things are getting crazy.

As we roll through Week 12, it seemed like a good time to check out the playoff race.  We have 3 divisions and 6 spots, so 3 wildcard spots out there.  Here are the current league standings.  The top 3 teams listed are the division leaders.  The tiebreaker for the 5-6 teams is head to head record, best division record (same division only) and then most average points per game.

Swiss Cheese is eliminated from playoff contention without even looking at the schedule.  Hsawaknow is eliminated because of the remaining schedules of the teams ahead leaving no chance to pass at least one of the 5-6 teams.

At the present time, peckerwoods is the only team to secure a playoff spot by clinching their division.  A win this week would lock up a first round bye.  Yours truly, Frank the Tank, can secure a division title with a win this week or losses by The Beannugets and BarNone.

Monday night’s rather crushing loss to the 49ers had a few bright spots (as hard as they are to distinguish from the debacle that was the last minute of the game!).  For fantasy purposes, there are a few names to keep an eye on going forward.

Jason Hill: Hill seemed to have one heck of a connection with QB Shaun Hill.  Jason finished the game with 7 receptions for 84 yards and also had one nice reception ruled incomplete on replay.  Up until 2 weeks ago, Jason Hill had done next to nothing in his brief 49ers career.  He put together a solid game with a touchdown reception 3 Sundays ago.  An injury to Arnaz Battle left Battle inactive Monday night and Hill got the start as the slot receiver.  He followed quite well in the steps of Battle, becoming Hill’s go-to guy the entire game.

Going forward I strongly recommend buying low on Jason Hill.  Battle is out again, as is Josh Morgan (described below), opening Hill up for even more receptions.  Hopefully he’s working his way towards becoming the impact player the 49ers hoped for when they drafted him.

Josh Morgan: I’ve been high on Josh Morgan since his big training camp.  He got a staph infection which stunted his first few weeks of growth.  Monday night was a nice little coming out with 4 receptions for 54 yards and a great 31 yard touchdown reception.

Unfortunately for Morgan, he strained his groin and will miss this coming Sunday.  If he can get healthy I’d love to see what kind of rapport he develops with Shaun Hill.

Dominique Zeigler: Any non-49ers fan is probably asking themselves who this is.  Zeigler spent all of last season, and the first half of this season on the 49ers practice squad.  Zeigler finished second among NFL receivers in receptions this past preseason and showed some spectacular hands.  Unfortunately the numbers game cut him out of a roster spot.

The injury to Battle got Zeigler brought up from the practice squad and added to the active roster Monday night.  He finished with one reception for 22 yards, but the important point is the upcoming game.  Battle and Morgan are out and so Zeigler has been named the primary backup in the slot and a the split end position behind Bryant Johnson.  He’ll be on the field in all 4-receiver formations and given the use of that formation, I’d expect some decent numbers from him if they lookin his direction at all.

Either way, I expect some decent numbers from all the 49ers young receivers going forward.

The 49ers shook things up rather dramatically when they elected to fire head coach Mike Nolan and promote assistant head coach Mike Singletary.  I think it should improve the team’s chances in terms of wins and losses, but you’re not visiting this blog to learn that.  You all want to know the fantasy implications of the coaching change.

When you’ve got an independent offensive coordinator like Mike Martz, it’s easy to think there will be few if any changes.  In promoting Singletary, the 49ers have gone with a strictly defensive guy.  He’s certainly a smart guy, but a complicated offense like Martz’s would certainly not be conducive to a first time head coach.  Of course, Singletary doesn’t really need to know the details of the offense as long as he has a vague idea of things.

The one area I could see improvement is with Frank Gore.  This could happen if Singletary was forceful in letting Martz know Gore needs to get the ball more often.  At the same time, I really don’t expect that to happen because of the disparity in knowledge of the offense between Martz and Singletary.

One area I do expect big changes is on defense.  Fantasy players don’t usually pay too much attention to the defensive stats.  They look for decent matchups and leave it at that.  However, I think Mike Singletary could help the 49ers defense become a more prolific fantasy performer.  I’d expect to see the defense become more aggressive in blitzing meaning more sacks, and possibly more turnovers.  Also, the secondary has played off the wide receivers WAY too much and I’d hope that will change.  If the 49ers become a more aggressive defense, it’s entirely reasonable to expect more sacks and INTs.  Fumbles are based as much on luck as anything, although I could see an aggressive defense maybe causing more fumbles as well.

Either way, I recommend the 49ers defense as a strong buy.  I picked them up in one league as I expect some solid performances.  If somebody has them, they might be worth trading for if you can buy low.  Throw in a great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks and Seneca Wallace and it could be a very good week for the 49ers DST.

We’re a quarter of the way through the season and now seems as good a time as any to look at the fantasy state of the 49ers at this point.  The offense is clearly better, but how much so for winning some fantasy football?

J.T. O’Sullivan – Just Touchdowns/Just Turnovers O’Sullivan has been a mixed bag of production so far.  He has picked up some decent yardage totals, but his turnovers have been ugly, including two red zone interceptions last week.  He’s a big time wild card as a starter but as a backup I think he’s worth playing in some matchups (both St. Louis games, maybe the Miami game)

Frank Gore – I don’t think very much needs to be said about Frank the Tank.  He’s averaging a very solid 4.9 yards per carry while being tied for the team lead in receptions.  He leads the NFL in total yards and is on pace for a career high 12 touchdowns.  I don’t see any reason he’s not going to continue succeeding at such a high level.

Vernon Davis – He’s been a phenomenal blocking tight end, but unfortunately fantasy points are not awarded for blocking.  He also helps stretch defenses because they have to put a man on him on deep routes, but again, if he’s not catching the ball he lacks value.  If he can improve his chemistry with JTO his value will certainly rise.  Or if the 49ers work more screen passes to him.  He’s a definite buy low candidate.

Arnaz Battle – He’s coming off the best performance of his career in yards and tied his career high in receptions.  The problem is that when he performs well the 49ers usually stink.  So, if the 49ers can get the offense rolling even more, he might get overshadowed by the rest of the receivers.

Isaac Bruce – Since his big yardage game against the Seahawks, he’s managed a touchdown in each of the last two weeks.  While he’s no #1 stud, he’s definitely a nice flex option.  He knows the offense and seems to have a nice little rapport with JTO.

Joe Nedney – Some struggles against Detroit aside, Nedney has been a very solid performer for the 49ers yet again.  The offense has stumbled a bit in the red zone so he’s gotten a fair number of field goal tries.  Personally I hope his field goal tries go down and his extra points go up.

49ers Defense – I expected big things from the 49ers defense this year but they haven’t quite reached that level.  The bad news is they give up too many points, but the good news is they’re starting to force turnovers and occasionally mix in some sacks.  Hopefully they’ll improve in the coming weeks.  They’ve got some tough matchups coming up so we’ll see.

In fantasy football, your win/loss record is obviously the most important indicator of success.  I don’t think I’ve ever stated anything so obvious.  However, after a mere two weeks of football, we have to look a little deeper to figure out who the quality teams are.  A lot of times you’ll have a team put up huge point totals but be 1-1 or 0-2 because they simply ran into the wrong opponents at the wrong time.  Think of the 2008 Minnesota Vikings.  They’re 0-2 but have faced the Colts and Packers, both of whom are very likely to win their respective divisions.

In the Niners Nation league, the teams at the top are also the highest scoring teams.  However, in looking at my own team, I can see I’ve had a favorable schedule as well.  While I’ve put up 173.4 points, my opponents have combined to score 100.45.  To put that in perspective, two 0-2 teams have had opponents score a combined 239.65 and 244.4 points.  If I had been in that situation I’d liekly be 0-2 as well.

While every win is important, week 3 could go a long way in setting teams up for success.  A 3-0 start gives you a nice little cushion to build on.  Looking at my own team, Frank the Tank, I’ve got some lineup decisions to make.  Purple Jesus (Adrian Peterson for those who hadn’t heard) is questionable this weekend and the Vikings staff has said he’s a game-time decision.  I have to be away from my computer in the couple of hours leading up to the Vikings game, so I’m stuck deciding if I should unleash Matt Forte, or go for a spread formation with Santana Moss as a 3rd wide receiver and only 1 running back.

These sorts of decisions make or break championship squads.

Part of perk of the FleaFlicker service is the additional blogging platform they offer.  I’ll be posting updates every so often and now is as good a time as any.  The NFL season is underway with the Giants 16-7 victory over the Redskins.  While that’s fine and dandy, Sunday September 7 is when things truly get under way.  I know I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and ALL of my fantasy squads.

One of the drawbacks to having multiple fantasy football teams is who exactly am I rooting for?  I might have one team’s defense and then a running back on the opposing team.  Or maybe I’ve got a wide receiver in one league and my opponent has that WR’s quarterback.  It gets rather complicated, but I do have one hard and fast rule.  Any fantasy glory will be automatically sacrificed if the 49ers are involved.  I have Matt Hasselbeck in a couple of leagues and when he faces the 49ers I’ll be rooting against him with every fiber of my being.

A lot of people who are don’t like fantasy sports, or just don’t participate in fantasy sports, feel that it takes away from rooting for your team or showing any sort of singular loyalty.  I do see how that is possible.  I’ve been tempted to stray in that regard.  I’m a very competitive individual, particularly when money is on the line.  However, my team is my team.  I picked up an assortment of 49ers in various leagues, so hopefully they make rooting for the 49ers that much better.

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